From zero‑inflation fantasies to oversized square‑foot assumptions, the School Board’s math is off by millions. Here’s the real calculation, and the smarter plan that saves money and serves every student instead of just the middle school.
A Tax Bill You’ll Feel Long Before the Paint Dries
Picture this: It’s 2032, you open your property‑tax bill, and the number feels like a misprint. But it isn’t—it’s the 12.3 percent spike that finally landed after years of “smoothed‑out” bond payments. Add the 6.5 percent average annual hikes we’re already seeing, and the total hits harder than any winter storm.
Cape Elizabeth voters hold the pen on June 10. Approving the $86.5 million bond sets that future in ink. Here’s why the glossy sales pitch from the School Board leaves out the most expensive chapters.
Fuzzy Formula #1: The Phantom “Six‑Year” Schedule
Claim: Spreading bond issuances over six to seven years keeps taxes low.
Reality: There is no fixed schedule; bonds float with market rates. If interest ticks up even 1 point, the long‑delay strategy costs millions extra in debt service.
Fuzzy Formula #2: Zero Inflation in a 40 Percent World
The School Board’s projections advertised to voters (using your tax dollars) assume today’s construction prices way out in 2032. If inflation averages a modest 5 percent, costs swell roughly 40 percent in seven years. None of that appears in the School Board’s spreadsheet. Who is putting together these financial models?
Fuzzy Formula #3: 50 Percent More Space Than the State Recommends
Maine guidelines call for 160 sq ft per middle‑schooler. The proposal budgets 243 sq ft. That accounts for an extra 50 percent of concrete, steel, and HVAC you’ll never see in test scores but will pay for with interest.
Fuzzy Formula #4: Ignoring Compounded Budget Hikes
Bond backers highlight one‑time debt numbers but bury the 6.5 percent average annual town‑budget increase already hitting tax bills. Stack the 12.3 percent bond spike on top, and taxes will double inside a decade.
When You Correct the Math
Debt service alone: +12.3 %
Ongoing budget trend: +6.5 % annually
Inflation gap: up to +40 % on construction costs. Add interest on delayed borrowing, and the numbers get uglier still.
The Three‑School Solution: More for Students, Less for Taxpayers
There’s a plan on the table that tackles 100 percent of critical needs across all three schools while trimming at least $45 million off the price tag. Highlights include:
- Modern middle‑school wing for grades 6 to 8 with STEM labs and modern special‑ed suites.
- Dedicated Performing Arts Center (no “cafetorium” compromise).
- Secure new entrances and cafeterias at Pond Cove and the Middle School.
- Construction phased to minimize classroom disruption and control costs.
- Read all about the “Three School Solution” here.
Tax Impact
By keeping debt manageable and rightsizing the build, the Three‑School Solution stabilizes budgets, freeing funds for teachers, programs, and seniors on fixed incomes.
How You Can Protect Cape Elizabeth’s Future
- Vote NO on June 10 to stop the oversized bond.
- Share this post—forward it, print it, talk about it at the ballfield. Neighbors can’t vote wisely if they don’t see the real math.
- Demand transparency and a fiscally sound proposal that honors both our students and our taxpayers.
Cape Elizabeth stands at a crossroads. Let’s choose the route that leads to strong schools and stable taxes, not a detour into runaway debt.